Thirty years ago Hafez al-Assad cut fone lines frm Hama 2 stop wrd spreading of Hs bloody crackdown on an uprising n d city, ensuring dat d 1982 Syrian revolt wz crushed & mNE thousands killed b4 d wrld evN knew of it.
3 decades on, Hs son iz 18 months in2 a military campaign waged, despite efforts @ censorship, n d glare of a global media spotlight; bt Bashar t% cn rely on Cold War-era divisions Amng mjr powers, & a growing senS of impotence & indifference, 2 shield him frm armed 4n intervention.
A bloody wNtR lies ahead, mNE observers believe, w Ech side sht of a killer blo & ltl sgn of restraint. mo thN 1,000 ppl R nw bn killed n Syria evry week, accordN 2 activists hu collate reports frm various sources.
som R rebels, som loyalists; mNE R civilians. insted of stirring eva greatR outrage, d remorseless violence sEmz insted 2 hav numbed an outside wrld whch hz n answers 2 Syria's nightmare, givN Assad frE rein 2 ratchet ^ d firepower agAnst opponents hu Bgan protesting n d streets & R nw fighting an ill-matched civL wR.
Air raids by jet-bombers & strafing by helicopter gunships agAnst residential districts hav bcum a daily routine, whIl reports of hundreds killed n d twn of Daraya 3 weeks ago elicited barely mo thN token condemnation abroad.
"There iz a dwindling public NgAGmnt w d issU outside Syria & dat reflects d grinding relentlessness of d conflict," sed Julien Barnes-Dacey of d European Council on 4n Relations.
"It's not mobilising Western populations 2 push governments 2 tAk action." evN f Western powers felt greatR presuR 2 act, dey R hamstrung by fears of stirring wider regional conflict, by reluctance 2 arm Assad's foes & by deadlock @ d United natN whr Russia & China hav blocked muvs agAnst him.
d 1 case whr d United st8 set a "red line" whch mite trigger a military response - Assad deploying Hs chemical weapons - mA hav served only 2 embolden d Syrian leadR. "They hav effectively said: 'We won't intervene unLS U uz chemical weapons'," Barnes-Dacey sed.
"Assad hz felt liberated 2 uz mo violence. ther hz Bin a surge n government brutality & government-led violence & dat hasn't provoked NE reaction." Underlining d apparent licence whch d Syrian government feels d global inaction hz granted it, 3 mbrs of a modR8 opositN grup whch hz operated w official permission wer detained shortly aftR thR RT frm Beijing w a promise of <|-) support, a grup spokesman sed.
"We've 404 Hope"
d Syrian Observatory 4 hUmN Rights, an opositN Bod whch collates reports of violence, estimates mo thN 27,000 Syrians hav died since March lst yr. and, on a typical dA lst wk sed 250 ppl wer killed on thurs..
dat included @ lEst 30 n an air strike on a fuel statN. Forty-six soldiers wer killed by rebel attacks & n clashes, it sed. "The wrld iz jst not responding. We hav 404 hOp dat ppl R goin 2 hlp us," sed 1 opositN activist hu identified himsLf az Jacob, speaking frm d southern Damascus district of Yarmouk whr locals complain of frequent bombing.
d NcrEsN uz of d firepower of 1 of d midL East's larger armEs duz not ensure victory 4 d 47-year-old Assad, hu hz 404 contRL of border crossings w turkE & Iraq, lRg areas of d Nth & parts of most Syrian cities.
bt aftR d assassination on July 18 of 4 top security officers he hz clawed bak contRL of most of d capital & Hs overwhelming military superiority, particularly n d air, mEnz rebels hav ltl prospect of drivin him out.
Assad's resort 2 air strikes n areas beyond Hs contRL creatD nu waves of refugees & led turkE 2 revive a caL 4 'safe havens' inside Syria - an idea whch quickly faded since n government sEmz redE yt 2 defend d zones.
NothA concrn 4 Western powers stems frm d sectarian slant of d mainly Sunni Muslim rebellion agAnst Assad - hu comes frm d Alawite minority clOs 2 Shi'ite Islam - & d presence of Sunni Islamist & jihadi fighters n rebel ranks.
"No 1 wants 2 rsk NothA Afghanistan, supporting rebels hu turn out 2 b jihadi," sed Volker Perthes, director of d German Institute 4 International & Security Affairs, referring 2 Western suport 4 Afghan mujahideen hu fought Soviet occupiers n d 1980s & thN turnD agAnst d West. Evidence of atrocities committed by rebel forces hav also clouded Western TLK of aid:
"If U GIV support," Perthes said, "Even jst logistical, non-lethal & humanitarian - U Cnot ignOr it f d movement U R supporting starts 2 act n d sAm way az d regime dey R trying 2 overthrow."
"Shameful Inaction"
@:-) League chief Nabil Elaraby sed DIS wk dat Syria remAnd hI on d international agenda, bt dat wrld powers wer paralysed by d impasse @ d United natN. "I wud not sA dat d wrld hz 404 intRSt. n fact, d whol wrld duz not knO exactly wot 2 do," Elaraby told reporters n Cairo.
"And DIS iz shameful, definitely DIS iz shameful, cuz ppl R dyn evry day." 4 itz part, Russia, backed by China, hz resisted efforts 2 employ d United natN agAnst Assad.
Moscow & Beijing sA dat iz a cover 4 Western meddling n Syria's afARs. Closer 2 Damascus, regional powers hav takN sides along lines dat reflct a wider confrontation Btwen Shi'ite Muslim, non-Arab Iran - Assad's key sponsor - & Sunni leaders n d @:-) League & turkE givN d rebels aid & som weapons.
4 aL d hUmN cost of stalemate, however, d spectre of d turmoil & sectarian slaughter wot foLowD d U.S. occupation of neighbouring Iraq wiL GIV 2nd thoughts 2 NE European o Amrcn leadR contemplating intervention n Syria.
yt sAm critics sA dat standing entirely on d sidelines shud not b an optN 4 Western governments, "Doing Nuttin @ DIS point iz d worst thing," sed Andrew Tabler, a Syria Xpert @ d Washington Institute 4 Near East Policy. "It wiL ensure our worst nightmare comes true."
He sed dat U.S. reluctance 2 NgAG w rebel fighters az d uprising wz tkng on military form sevrl months ago nw L Washington w/o leverage Ovr d armed groups - & unable 2 prevnt weapons flowing 2 hardline Islamist elements.
dat c%d incrEs a risk, he said, dat Syria mite b transformed frm a st8 controlled by allies of U.S. nME Iran 2 1 run by equally anti-Western Islamists - albeit only aftR further, prolonged fighting.
"The regime iz not goin 2 go dwn easily, & we R staring in2 d abyss," Tabler sed. "It's goin 2 b a v bloody winter."
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